New York is still open: notes on a city doing business

Every few years someone writes New York's obituary as a place to do business. The rent is too high, the talent is leaving for Miami or Austin, the towers are half empty. Then you look at the leasing data and the obituary looks premature. This is a field note, not a forecast. Here is what the city looks like from the business side in 2026.

The offices filled up, from the top down

The clearest signal is real estate. Midtown Manhattan's availability rate has been falling as large companies expand rather than shrink, and the FT reported that investors are piling billions back into the New York office market. The recovery is uneven. It is led by what brokers call the luxury tier: new or fully renovated towers with gyms, terraces and good food. The FT described that segment as booming, driven by financial services, law and technology firms that want space nice enough to bring people back in.

Older buildings are a different story. Some owners have decided the maths no longer works and are handing worn-out offices back to the bank. Others are converting them to flats. Both are signs of a market clearing, not collapsing. The FT's own conclusion after years of relocation headlines was blunt: the great Wall Street exit never quite happens, and Manhattan leasing has reached its strongest level since 2014.

Lawyers and bankers are hiring space

Law firms are among the biggest tenants. Reuters reported that US law-firm leasing jumped 17 per cent in the first half of 2026, with New York at the centre. Big firms want trophy floors; Paul Weiss set the tone a few years ago by taking more than 18 floors of a Midtown tower.

Pay follows. The consultancy Johnson Associates estimated that Wall Street bonus pools would be 15 to 25 per cent higher than the year before, though the money is not spread evenly across desks. Jefferies has even told its senior bankers they must collaborate to earn the biggest bonuses, which tells you the firms are competing for clients, not cutting.

Fintech found its feet again

The technology story in New York is finance-flavoured. Ramp, the corporate card and payments company based in the city, nearly doubled its valuation to $13bn as fintech recovered from a difficult stretch. New York fintechs have a structural advantage: the customers, banks and regulators they need are within a few subway stops.

Fifth Avenue is being rebuilt, not abandoned

Retail is where the mixed picture is most visible. Saks Global, owner of the Fifth Avenue flagship, has been through a painful, debt-heavy unwinding. Kering, the owner of Gucci, has been in talks to sell a stake in its prime Fifth Avenue building. That sounds bad until you notice who is buying: private equity and sovereign money paying up for the best blocks in the world. Weak operators are leaving; the real estate itself is not getting cheaper.

And then the Knicks

Business is also mood. The Economist argued that the Knicks' playoff run showed New York, and its version of capitalism, at its best: a city that spends when it is happy and fills its restaurants, bars and arenas. That kind of energy does not show up in a spreadsheet, but every shop owner in Midtown felt it.

The short version

New York's business scene in 2026 is a bifurcated one. Good buildings, good firms and good brands are doing very well. Tired buildings and over-leveraged retailers are being cleared out. That is roughly what a healthy market is supposed to do.